Residual correlation and ensemble modelling to improve crop and grassland models

Archive ouverte : Article de revue

Sándor, Renáta | Ehrhardt, Fiona | Grace, Peter | Recous, Sylvie | Smith, Pete | Snow, Val | Soussana, Jean-François | Bhatia, Arti | Brilli, Lorenzo | Doltra, Jordi | Dorich, Christopher, | Doro, Luca | Fitton, Nuala | Grant, Brian | Harrison, Matthew, | Skiba, Ute | Kirschbaum, Miko, | Klumpp, Katja | Laville, Patricia | Léonard, Joël | Martin, Raphaël | Massad, Raia Silvia | Moore, Andrew, | Myrgiotis, Vasileios | Pattey, Elizabeth | Rolinski, Susanne | Sharp, Joanna | Smith, Ward | Wu, Lianhai | Zhang, Qing | Bellocchi, Gianni

Edité par HAL CCSD ; Elsevier

International audience. Model calibration Residual plot analysis rotations including fallow periods. We do that by exploring the correlation of model residuals. We restricted the distinction between partial and full calibration to the two most relevant calibration stages, i.e. with plant data only (partial) and with a combination of plant, soil physical and biogeochemical data (full). It introduces and evaluates the trade-off between (1) what is practical to apply for model users and beneficiaries, and (2) what constitutes best modelling practice. The lower correlations obtained overall with fully calibrated models highlight the centrality of the full calibration scenario for identifying areas of model structures that require further development.

Consulter en ligne

Suggestions

Du même auteur

Ensemble modelling of carbon fluxes in grasslands and croplands | Sandor, Renata

Ensemble modelling of carbon fluxes in grasslands and croplands

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Sandor, Renata | 2020

International audience. Croplands and grasslands are agricultural systems that contribute to land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon (C). We evaluated and compared gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (...

How Modelers Model: the Overlooked Social and Human Dimensions in Model Intercomparison Studies. There is a growing realization that the complexity of model ensemble studies depends not only on the models used but also on the experience and approach used by modelers to calibrate and validate results, which remain a source of uncertainty. Here, we applied a multi-criteria decision-making method to investigate the rationale applied by modelers in a model ensemble study where 12 process-based different biogeochemical model types were compared across five successive calibration stages. The modelers shared a common level of agreement about the importance of the variables used to initialize their models for calibration. However, we found inconsistency among modelers when judging the importance of input variables across different calibration stages. The level of subjective weighting attributed by modelers to calibration data decreased sequentially as the extent and number of variables provided increased. In this context, the perceived importance attributed to variables such as the fertilization rate, irrigation regime, soil texture, pH, and initial levels of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks was statistically different when classified according to model types. The importance attributed to input variables such as experimental duration, gross primary production, and netecosystem exchange varied significantly according to the length of the modeler’s experience. We argue that the gradual access to input data across the five calibration stages negatively influenced the consistency of the interpretations made by the modelers, with cognitive bias in “trial-and-error” calibration routines. Our study highlights that overlooking human and social attributes is critical in the outcomes of modeling and model intercomparison studies. While complexity of the processes captured in the model algorithms and parameterization is important, we contend that (1) the modeler’s assumptions on the extent to which parameters should be altered and (2) modeler perceptions of the importance of model parameters are just as critical in obtaining a quality model calibration as numerical or analytical details. | Albanito, Fabrizio

How Modelers Model: the Overlooked Social and Human Dimensions in Model Int...

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Albanito, Fabrizio | 2022-09-20

International audience. There is a growing realization that the complexity of model ensemble studies depends not only on the models used but also on the experience and approach used by modelers to calibrate and vali...

Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in long‐term bare‐fallow soils | Farina, Roberta

Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in...

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Farina, Roberta | 2021-02

International audience. Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate-change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long-term pre...

Du même sujet

Miscanthus x giganteus culture on soils highly contaminated by metals: Modelling leaf decomposition impact on metal mobility and bioavailability in the soil\textendashplant system | Al-Souki, Karim-Suhail

Miscanthus x giganteus culture on soils highly contaminated by metals: Mode...

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Al-Souki, Karim-Suhail | 2020

ACL. Miscanthus x giganteus is suggested as a good candidate for phytostabilization of metal-polluted soils. Its late harvest in winter generates large amounts of leaf litter on the soil surface. However, little is ...

Exposure to multiple air pollutants and the incidence of coronary heart disease: A fine-scale geographic analysis | Occelli, Florent

Exposure to multiple air pollutants and the incidence of coronary heart dis...

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Occelli, Florent | 2020

ACL. Geographical variations in cardiovascular disease rates have been linked to individual air pollutants. Investigating the relation between cardiovascular disease and exposure to a complex mixture of air pollutan...

Residential exposure to outdoor air pollution and adult lung function, with focus on small airway obstruction | Havet, Anaïs

Residential exposure to outdoor air pollution and adult lung function, with...

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Havet, Anaïs | 2020

ACL. Although a growing body of evidence suggests that chronic exposure to outdoor air pollution is linked to a decline in lung function, data on flow at low lung volumes that may be more specific of small airway ob...

An Overview of litter decomposition in soils for a diversity of agronomic and pedoclimatic contexts | Jacqueton, Céline

An Overview of litter decomposition in soils for a diversity of agronomic a...

Archive ouverte: Poster de conférence

Jacqueton, Céline | 2021-08-23

International audience

Accumulation, speciation and localization of silver nanoparticles in the earthworm Eisenia fetida | Courtois, Pauline

Accumulation, speciation and localization of silver nanoparticles in the ea...

Archive ouverte: Article de revue

Courtois, Pauline | 2020-04-08

International audience. The use of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in agriculture and many consumer products has led to a significant release of Ag in the environment. Although Ag toxicity in terrestrial organisms has ...

Exposition aux poussières sédimentées dans les environnements intérieurs | Glorennec, Philippe

Exposition aux poussières sédimentées dans les environnements intérieurs

Archive ouverte: Rapports

Glorennec, Philippe | 2019

OS. L’Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l’alimentation, de l’environnement et du travail endosse les conclusions et recommandations de l’expertise collective relative à la caractérisation de l’exposition de ...

Chargement des enrichissements...